FPL GW10 predictions: expected points for every player

Updated Sun 1 Nov, 14:41. Deadline GW10: Fri 6 Nov, 18:30.

Expected points (xP) is how many FPL points a player scores on average, given his fixture, expected minutes and underlying numbers. The model rates every team’s attack and defence from expected goals, estimates each player’s minutes from recent games and the latest injury news, and converts it all to FPL points with the official scoring rules. The numbers update every 30 minutes, and injury news within minutes.

Best Forwards for GW10

#	Player	Team	Price	Opponent	xP GW10	xP next 6
1	Haaland	MCI FWD	£15.8m	NFO (A)	5.3	33.4
2	Isak	LIV FWD	£9.2m	CRY (A)	4.5	25.9
3	Barry	EVE FWD	£5.6m	COV (H)	4.4	23.2
4	Evanilson	BOU FWD	£6.4m	IPS (A)	4.3	23.1
5	N.Jackson	AVL FWD	£7.0m	MUN (A)	4.1	27.1
6	Kostoulas	BHA FWD	£5.8m	BRE (H)	3.9	22.7
7	Calvert-Lewin	LEE FWD	£6.1m	TOT (H)	3.8	23.6
8	Thiago	BRE FWD	£7.8m	BHA (A)	3.8	23.6
9	Gonzalo	FUL FWD	£6.0m	NEW (H)	3.7	19.9
10	Emersonn	IPS FWD	£5.5m	BOU (H)	3.3	19.9
11	Delap	NFO FWD	£5.4m	MCI (H)	2.9	17.4
12	Brobbey	SUN FWD	£5.7m	CHE (H)	2.9	16.3

Best Midfielders for GW10

#	Player	Team	Price	Opponent	xP GW10	xP next 6
1	Tavernier	BOU MID	£6.6m	IPS (A)	5.3	28.5
2	Mbeumo	MUN MID	£7.9m	AVL (H)	5.0	28.6
3	Ødegaard	ARS MID	£6.7m	HUL (H)	4.8	25.5
4	Dewsbury-Hall	EVE MID	£6.6m	COV (H)	4.7	25.0
5	Groß	BHA MID	£6.2m	BRE (H)	4.5	26.0
6	Iwobi	FUL MID	£5.4m	NEW (H)	4.4	24.0
7	E.Le Fée	SUN MID	£5.7m	CHE (H)	4.3	24.7
8	Palmer	CHE MID	£9.8m	SUN (A)	4.2	25.5
9	Rogers	CHE MID	£8.1m	SUN (A)	4.2	25.1
10	B.Fernandes	MUN MID	£11.7m	AVL (H)	4.1	23.7
11	Rayan	BOU MID	£6.3m	IPS (A)	4.1	22.4
12	Enciso	IPS MID	£5.5m	BOU (H)	4.0	24.3

Best Defenders for GW10

#	Player	Team	Price	Opponent	xP GW10	xP next 6
1	Gabriel	ARS DEF	£8.0m	HUL (H)	6.1	30.5
2	Tarkowski	EVE DEF	£6.2m	COV (H)	4.8	23.0
3	Konsa	ARS DEF	£4.7m	HUL (H)	4.8	24.0
4	De Cuyper	BHA DEF	£5.4m	BRE (H)	4.8	28.5
5	White	ARS DEF	£5.4m	HUL (H)	4.6	23.1
6	Justin	LEE DEF	£4.5m	TOT (H)	4.3	23.3
7	Muharemović	LEE DEF	£5.1m	TOT (H)	4.3	23.3
8	Vuskovic	BHA DEF	£5.2m	BRE (H)	4.1	25.0
9	Bogle	LEE DEF	£4.8m	TOT (H)	4.1	22.5
10	Silva	BOU DEF	£5.0m	IPS (A)	4.1	23.8
11	Van Hecke	TOT DEF	£5.0m	LEE (A)	4.1	26.8
12	Hill	BOU DEF	£5.5m	IPS (A)	4.0	23.7

Best Goalkeepers for GW10

#	Player	Team	Price	Opponent	xP GW10	xP next 6
1	Raya	ARS GK	£6.2m	HUL (H)	4.5	23.7
2	Trafford	LEE GK	£5.0m	TOT (H)	4.2	23.5
3	Pickford	EVE GK	£5.5m	COV (H)	3.5	18.1
4	Verbruggen	BHA GK	£4.6m	BRE (H)	3.4	21.0
5	Leno	FUL GK	£4.5m	NEW (H)	3.3	18.7
6	A.Becker	LIV GK	£5.5m	CRY (A)	3.3	20.1
7	Suzuki	AVL GK	£5.0m	MUN (A)	3.3	21.4
8	Lammens	MUN GK	£4.8m	AVL (H)	3.2	18.6
9	Kinsky	TOT GK	£4.4m	LEE (A)	3.1	19.4
10	Donnarumma	MCI GK	£5.5m	NFO (A)	3.0	18.3
11	Petrović	BOU GK	£4.5m	IPS (A)	3.0	18.1
12	Tzolakis	HUL GK	£4.7m	ARS (A)	3.0	19.2

Best value: xP per £1m over the next 6 gameweeks

#	Player	Price	xP next 6
1	Van Hecke	£5.0m	26.8
2	De Cuyper	£5.4m	28.5
3	Justin	£4.5m	23.3
4	Rudoni	£4.9m	25.3
5	Konsa	£4.7m	24.0
6	Robertson	£4.3m	21.7
7	Vuskovic	£5.2m	25.0
8	Davis	£4.0m	19.1
9	Silva	£5.0m	23.8
10	O'Shea	£4.0m	18.9

Differentials: owned by under 10%

#	Player	Owned	xP GW10
1	Dewsbury-Hall	6.1%	4.7
2	White	4.8%	4.6
3	Iwobi	1.4%	4.4
4	Barry	7.4%	4.4
5	E.Le Fée	2.7%	4.3
6	Justin	2.4%	4.3
7	Muharemović	6.1%	4.3
8	Trafford	6.3%	4.2
9	Vuskovic	7.1%	4.1
10	Silva	2.1%	4.1

Injuries and doubts

Calafiori ARS	75%	Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
João Pedro CHE	0%	Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Szoboszlai LIV	50%	Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
Rice ARS	75%	Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Thomas COV	50%	Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
Saka ARS	0%	Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Semenyo MCI	0%	Knee injury - Unknown return date
Lacroix CHE	0%	Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
Cash AVL	0%	Suspended until 21 Nov
Tzolis ARS	75%	Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Shaw MUN	0%	Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
James CHE	0%	Knee injury - Unknown return date
Martinez CHE	0%	Head injury - Unknown return date
Branthwaite EVE	75%	Concussion - 75% chance of playing
Madueke ARS	50%	Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing

Questions

What does xP mean in FPL?

xP (expected points) is the average number of FPL points a player is expected to score in a gameweek, taking his fixture, expected minutes, goals, assists, clean sheet chance, defensive contributions and bonus into account.

How often are the predictions updated?

The model reruns every 30 minutes, and injury and team news from FPL is applied within minutes.

Is Gaffer free?

Yes. Gaffer is a free, independent fan site and is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.

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